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Tropical cyclone formation probability

This is a 72hr NOGAPS wind and pressure map from the Navy site. The wind flags show the direction the of the wind. The wind is blowing from the flag end to the poll end. The pressure is shown in the lines. The blue lines represent high pressure which tropical systems will move around. The purple and red lines represent low pressure which must be present in any tropical system. The Nogaps model is one of the many global models used for weather and hurricane forecasting.
 
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